The Sahel: The region of the African continent with the highest number of deaths from terrorism in the world
The Sahel region, a strip up to 6,300 kilometers long that runs through Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea and crosses a dozen countries, has become an important rear base for groups seeking to establish an Islamic caliphate. This territory has become the "epicenter of global terrorism" and, for the first time, is responsible for "more than half of all terrorism-related deaths."
The Islamic groups operating in this region are primarily active in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Lake Chad, and are seeking to expand into the rest of the Sahel region.
This is according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which in its latest report indicates that in 2024, "51% of all terrorism-related deaths" occurred in the Sahel, representing 3,885 out of a global total of 7,555.
The GTI report adds that while the global figure has declined from a peak of 11,000 in 2015 the figure for the Sahel has increased nearly tenfold since 2019, as extremist and insurgent groups "continue to shift their focus" towards the region.
The index is published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, a think-tank dedicated to researching global peace and conflict. It defines terrorism as the "threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation".
The Sahel region
The Sahel region, is a biogeographical region in Africa. It is the transition zone between the more humid Sudanian savannas to its south and the drier Sahara to the north. In a west-east direction, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, crossing the entire continent and approximately ten countries.
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) definition for the region includes parts of 10 countries: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Cameroon, Guinea, The Gambia, Senegal, Nigeria, Chad and Mauritania.
The Sahel has some of the world's highest birth rates, and almost two-thirds of the population is under 25. Unlike in the West where "lone actor terrorism is on the rise", the Sahel, has seen the rapid expansion of militant jihadist groups, according to the report.
Most of the attacks were carried out by two organizations: the Sahel affiliate of the Islamic State group (Islamic State of the Greater Sahara or ISGS) and Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an offshoot of al-Qaeda.
"They're trying to introduce new legal orders," explains Niagalé Bagayoko, chair of the African Security Sector Network. "They're trying to administer justice in particular based on Sharia." And in the process, she says they "are competing with one another" for land and influence.
The "coup belt" of the Sahel region
The Islamic State of the Greater Sahara (ISGS) in the Sahel region has reportedly doubled its territory in Mali since the 2020 and 2021 coups, mainly in the east of the country near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger, while Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has continued to expand its reach, according to a report by the UN group of experts on Mali.
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report notes that both groups have recruited more fighters, including child soldiers in the case of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).
"In some instances, people tend to be in a point of choicelessness by the time they decide to join a militant group," says Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst specialising in Francophone Africa at Control Risks, a geopolitical risk consultancy. "These are communities that are very vulnerable."
The GTI report explains how political instability and weak governance are creating ideal conditions for insurgent groups to grow, pointing to conflict as "the primary driver of terrorism". The Sahel region is often referred to as Africa's "coup belt."
Since 2020 there have been six successful coups in the region as defined by the GTI report: two in Mali, two in Burkina Faso, one in Guinea and one in Niger. These countries are now all run by military juntas.
"The Sahel has experienced a breakdown in state society," says Dr Folahanmi Aina, an expert on the region at SOAS University in London.
"It's been informed by years of neglect from political leaders who haven't necessarily prioritised people-centred governance and local grievances have festered, resulting in terror groups trying to leverage these."
There was a perception that civilian governments were unable to combat security threats from insurgent groups, "but despite these juntas taking over, they haven't necessarily improved optics on the ground and in fact insecurity has worsened," says Dr Aina. "The juntas are professionally unprepared for the rigours of governance."
In fact in 2024, Burkina Faso "remained the country most affected by terrorism for the second year in a row" according to the GTI. In the 14 years since the report began, it is the only country to top the list that is not Iraq or Afghanistan.
Criminal activity
Jihadist groups support their operations in the Sahel region with various illicit economic activities, such as kidnapping for ransom and cattle rustling, according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report.
The region has also become a key route for drug traffickers bringing cocaine from South America to Europe, and the report notes that "drug trafficking represents one of the most financially lucrative illicit activities linked to terrorism in the Sahel". It points out that that some groups veer away from directly engaging in organised crime, however, preferring to "make money by imposing taxes or providing security and protection in exchange for payment".
It goes on to explain: "This model not only generates revenue but also helps these groups integrate into local communities, strengthening their influence."
Insurgent groups are also vying for control of the Sahel's rich natural resources
Niger is the world's seventh-largest uranium producer, and unregulated artisanal gold mines throughout the region are often exploited by groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). Following the recent wave of coups, Sahel governments have pivoted away from Western allies, such as France and the US, towards China and Russia for support in tackling militants.
"Right now we're seeing that Russia is taking more assertive control over Russian paramilitaries in the region known as the Africa Corps [formerly Wagner]," says Ms Ochieng. "Their work is to train and support the local armies to be able to counter the insurgency in the region, but so far it hasn't been effective."
As a result, the GTI report warns that there is now a risk of overspill beyond the so-called "epicentre of terror" to neighbouring countries.
In fact, it says this may already be happening, Togo recorded 10 attacks and 52 deaths in 2024, the most since the index began. These were largely concentrated along the country's border with Burkina Faso. Ms Ochieng agrees with this assessment, saying that "the expansion of militant groups within the region in countries like Benin or Togo or other coastal West African states seems to be imminent".