UN activates Planetary Security Protocol for first time due to risk of asteroid collision
NASA, in collaboration with other space agencies, has been developing strategies to mitigate potential threats from asteroids like 2024 YR4, a small asteroid between 40 and 90 meters in size.
For the first time in history, the United Nations (UN) has activated the Planetary Security Protocol following the detection of a potentially dangerous asteroid. This is 2024 YR4, an object measuring 90 metres in diameter that could impact Earth on 22 December 2032.
Initial calculations estimate that the asteroid has a 1.5% chance of colliding with the planet on the expected date. Although the risk remains low, the discovery has mobilized NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), which are working on a detailed analysis of its trajectory and on possible mitigation strategies.
The asteroid was detected in December 2024 and classified as level 3 on the The Torino scale. This level indicates that, although it is not an imminent threat, constant monitoring and more detailed studies are required to determine its real danger.
To reduce uncertainty and assess defence options, the UN activated the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), led by NASA and ESA. Among the strategies being studied is the possibility of diverting its trajectory with a spacecraft, a technique that was already successfully tested on the 2022 DART mission.
What areas of the planet could be affected?
Europe is not among the regions at risk. However, preliminary projections identified five areas that could be at risk in the event of an impact: the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa and South Asia.
In 2028, when the asteroid comes within 8 million kilometers of Earth, astronomers will be able to calculate its trajectory more precisely and determine whether it poses a real threat.
If 2024 YR4 were to impact, the energy released would be comparable to that of a nuclear explosion, similar to the one that occurred in Tunguska in 1908, when a meteorite devastated a large forest area in Siberia. However, experts say that in the worst case scenario, the asteroid would likely fall into the ocean or an unpopulated area, which would significantly reduce the potential damage.
What is the UN-activated Planetary Security Protocol?
As the UN classified it as "potentially hazardous" with a 1.5% chance of impact with Earth, the United Nations activated planetary defense protocols to better define the orbit, size and threat posed by 2024 YR4.
UN protocols are activated precisely when the probability of impact is greater than 1%, and for this purpose, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), chaired by NASA, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), led by ESA, are used.
Juan Luis Cano, coordinator of NASA's Planetary Defense Office, sent a message of reassurance in light of the activation of the protocol. "We are simply informing that, as experts and according to our protocols, we have to pay special attention to this particular asteroid," he explained.
Cano clarified that "the greatest possible resources" are being used to observe the object and its properties. "There is still a 98.5% chance that it will not hit Earth, we do not want to send a catastrophic message to society," he said.
Meanwhile, the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC) in Spain is one of the international research centres that is actively monitoring the asteroid discovered in December 2024.
The IAC has been following 2024 YR4 from its observatories for several weeks, which has allowed it to obtain very precise measurements of its position and improve the determination of its orbit. Furthermore, despite the object's faintness, researcher Julia de León provided information on its composition thanks to the spectra obtained with the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC), the largest in the world.